What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market?

Welcome, September! As September begins in Los Angeles, we’re stepping into one of the most exciting times of the year for real estate. With the new NAR settlement coming into play and the summer rush winding down, it’s an ideal moment to review recent market trends and anticipate the opportunities the fall season offers. Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just staying informed, I invite you to join us for our Buyer/Seller seminar on Thursday, September 19th. Let’s explore what September has in store and how you can capitalize on the current real estate market. Plus, I’m sharing a few of my favorite highlights from my recent trip to Montauk—keep scrolling to discover them! Wishing you all the best, -Lisa & Dylan

Hello, Sunny August! After June Gloom stretched into July, we are thrilled to welcome August’s clear blue skies! July was a busy month for us at LKP, with 2 properties sold, 2 new listings, and 1 in escrow. July was fantastic, and so is the real estate market! We also launched our new instagram video series, be sure to check it out at @lisa.kirshner and @dylan.elkin. In this edition, we’ll spotlight some of LA’s trendiest food spots, explore the latest market trends, and offer tips to help you navigate our dynamic real estate landscape. Whether you’re eyeing a hip spot in Silver Lake or dreaming of a beachfront retreat in Santa Monica, this month’s newsletter will help you stay ahead of the curve and find the perfect opportunity. Wishing you all the best, -Lisa & Dylan

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Each year, homeowners planning to make a move are faced with a decision: sell their house during the holidays or wait. And others who have already listed their homes may think about removing their listings and waiting until the new year to go back on the market. The truth is many buyers want to purchase a home for the holidays, and your house might be just what they’re looking for. Here are five great reasons you shouldn’t wait to sell your house. 1. While the supply of homes for sale has increased this year, there still aren’t enough homes on the market to keep up with buyer demand. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist & Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “There’s still this gap between demand and supply because we were underbuilding for many years. . . . So now we see demand is slowing, but it still outpaces supply.” 2. Serious homebuyers are out looking right now. Millennials are driving homebuying demand today, and many are eager to make a purchase. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains: "While not the frenzy of 2021, the largest living generation, the Millennials, will continue to age into their prime home-buying years, creating a demographic tailwind for the housing market.” 3. The desire to own a home doesn’t stop during the holidays. In fact, homes decorated for the holidays appeal to many buyers. Plus, purchasers who look for homes during the holidays are ready to buy. 4. You can restrict the showings in your house to days and times that are most convenient for you. That can help you minimize disruptions, which is especially important this time of year. 5. Rents have skyrocketed in recent years. And, many buyers are looking to escape rising rents and avoid falling into the rental trap for another year. As an article from Zillow says: “Over the next 12 months, rents are expected to grow more than inflation, the stock market and home values." Your home could be their ticket to leaving renting behind for good. Bottom Line There are still many reasons it makes sense to list your house during the holiday season. Let’s connect to determine if selling now is your best move.

4 Things That Help Determine Your Mortgage Rate If you’re looking to buy a home, you probably want to secure the lowest interest rate possible for your home loan. Over the last couple of years, that was easier to do as the housing market saw record-low mortgage rates, but this year rates have risen dramatically. If you’re looking for ways to combat today’s higher rates and lock in the lowest one you can, here are a few factors to focus on. Since approval opportunities can vary, connect with a trusted lender for customized advice. Your Credit Score Credit scores can play a big role in your mortgage rate. Freddie Mac explains: “When you build and maintain strong credit, mortgage lenders have greater confidence when qualifying you for a mortgage because they see that you’ve paid back your loans as agreed and used your credit wisely. Strong credit also means your lender is more apt to approve you for a mortgage that has more favorable terms and a lower interest rate.” That’s why it’s important to maintain a good credit score. If you want to focus on improving your score, your trusted advisor can give you expert advice to help. Your Loan Type There are many types of loans, each offering different terms for qualified buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) says: “There are several broad categories of mortgage loans, such as conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans. Lenders decide which products to offer, and loan types have different eligibility requirements. Rates can be significantly different depending on what loan type you choose.” While overall interest rates have increased, there remains a misconception about the status of jumbo mortgage rates. As a reminder, jumbo loans are those greater than $647,200 (smaller loans are called “conforming”). Recent articles in the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg lament mortgage rates reaching 7%, but they are referring to conforming loans. Rates for jumbo loans are actually much lower. When working with your real estate advisor, make sure you find out what’s available in your area and which types of loans you may qualify for. Your Loan Term Another factor to consider is the term of your loan. Just like with location and loan types, you have options. Freddie Mac says: “When choosing the right home loan for you, it’s important to consider the loan term, which is the length of time it will take you to repay your loan before you fully own your home. Your loan term will affect your interest rate, monthly payment, and the total amount of interest you will pay over the life of the loan.” Depending on your situation, the length of your loan can also change your mortgage rate. Your Down Payment If you’re a current homeowner looking to sell and make a move, you can use the home equity you’ve built over time toward the down payment on your next home. The CFPB explains: “In general, a larger down payment means a lower interest rate, because lenders see a lower level of risk when you have more stake in the property. So if you can comfortably put 20 percent or more down, do it—you’ll usually get a lower interest rate.” To learn more, connect with a lender to find out the difference a higher down payment can make for your new mortgage. Bottom Line These are just few factors that can help determine your mortgage rate if you’re buying a home. The best thing you can do is have a team of professionals on your side. Connect with a local real estate professional and a trusted lender so you have the expert advice you need in each step of the process.

What Are Experts Saying About the Fall Housing Market? The housing market is rapidly changing from the peak frenzy it saw over the past two years. That means you probably have questions about what your best move is if you’re thinking of buying or selling this fall. To help you make a confident decision, lean on the professionals for insights. Here are a few things experts are saying about the fall housing market. Expert Quotes for Fall Homebuyers A recent article from realtor.com: “This fall, a more moderate pace of home selling, more listings to choose from, and softening price growth will provide some breathing room for buyers searching for a home during what is typically the best time to buy a home. ” Michael Lane, VP and General Manager, ShowingTime: “Buyers will continue to see less competition for homes and have more time to tour homes they like and consider their options.” Expert Quotes for Fall Sellers Selma Hepp, Interim Lead of the Office of the Chief Economist, CoreLogic: “. . . record equity continues to provide fuel for housing demand, particularly if households are relocating to more affordable areas.” Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, realtor.com: “For homeowners deciding whether to make a move this year, remember that listing prices – while lower than a few months ago – remain higher than in prior years, so you're still likely to find opportunities to cash-in on record-high levels of equity, particularly if you've owned your home for a longer period of time.” Bottom Line Mortgage rates, home prices, and the supply of homes for sale are top of mind for buyers and sellers today. And if you want the latest information for our area, let’s connect today.

The talk of a housing bubble in the coming year seems to be at a fever pitch as rising mortgage rates continue to slow down an overheated real estate market. Over the past two years, home prices have appreciated at an unsustainable pace causing many to ask: are things just slowing down, or is a crash coming? To answer this question, there are two things we want to understand. The first is the reality of the shift in today’s housing market. And the second is what experts are saying about home prices in the coming year. The Reality of the Shift in Today’s Housing Market  The reality is we’re seeing an inflection point in housing supply and demand. According to realtor.com, active listings have increased more than 26% over last year, while showings from the latest ShowingTime Showing Index have decreased almost 17% from last year (see graph below). This is an inflection point for housing because, over the past two years, we’ve seen a massive amount of demand (showings) and not enough homes available for sale for the number of people that wanted to buy. That caused the market frenzy. Today, supply and demand look very different, and the market is slowing down from the pace we’ve seen. This offers proof of the sudden slowdown so many people are feeling.